Budget 2026 forecasts: Which records have been set and milestones passed?

The latest economic forecasts reveal several significant records and milestones for the UK in the 2026 budget. The tax burden is set to reach a record high, with the government collecting 37.9% of GDP in 2027/28, a level not seen since 1948. This is mainly driven by rising income tax and national insurance contributions due to frozen personal tax thresholds.

Living standards have also fallen to a record low, with real household disposable income (RHDI) averaging just 0.1% growth per person per year in the next decade, barely above pre-pandemic levels. Debt as a percentage of GDP remains at levels last seen in the early 1960s, peaking at 97.3% in 2028/29, a figure that was last observed when Harold Macmillan was prime minister.

Net migration to the UK is also forecast to fall close to pandemic levels, settling around 120,300 in 2026/27, nearly 100,000 lower than previously expected. Finally, spending on health and disability benefits is set to reach a record £105 billion in 2028/29, a year earlier than initially projected.