Win or lose, Netanyahu could remain in power for months after Israeli election as Iran tensions loom

Israel's recent parliamentary election may not immediately alter the government, even if opposition parties secure more seats. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could potentially retain power for months as tensions rise regarding potential military action against Iran. Yossi Mekelberg, a senior fellow at Chatham House, cautioned that Netanyahu might head a caretaker government capable of making significant military decisions during the interim period.

The election, Israel's first since Hamas-led attacks on October 7, 2023, follows years of war and calls for accountability over security lapses. Current opinion polls show neither Netanyahu's coalition nor the opposition, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, holding a majority of 61 seats in the 120-member Knesset. Forming a government could take months, during which Netanyahu would remain in office, even if his opponents won the majority.

There would be no new government the day after the election, warned Mekelberg, as a caretaker administration retains significant powers, including the authority to authorize military action. This volatility could heighten the risk of renewed conflict with Iran, potentially influenced by political developments in both Israel and the US ahead of their respective midterms.

The opposition-led government might reconsider Israel's reliance on military force against Iran, questioning Netanyahu's motives, which are intertwined with his corruption trial and desire to retain power. The election has also reignited calls for accountability regarding the 7 October attacks, which killed about 1,200 people and resulted in 251 hostages.

There has been no independent state inquiry into the attacks, with Netanyahu's government opposing a traditional commission, favoring a mechanism they deem insufficiently independent. Mekelberg emphasized that the demand for a state inquiry is shared by all opposition parties, as it is crucial for establishing responsibility and preventing future failures.

The election outcome could also impact Israel's stance on Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon. An opposition-led administration might engage more with international efforts concerning Gaza and pursue negotiations with Lebanon on security arrangements. However, any shift in policy would depend on the composition of the next coalition, including the involvement of parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel.

While a two-state solution is not imminent, Mekelberg suggested meaningful change would require easing occupation conditions and fostering a path towards a negotiated settlement.