Will Rubio’s Jamnagar Move Permanently Break The Russia-India Oil Axis?

In a recent turn of events, India's largest private refiner, Reliance Industries Ltd, has signaled its openness to collaborating with U.S. companies in various sectors, including oil, gas, and clean energy. This move, announced by the company, is seen as a positive sign by Washington, indicating that the United States can still leverage the Asian subcontinent as a key counterbalance to China's dominance in the Asia-Pacific region.

Moreover, India's importance as a supporter of Russia, both economically and geopolitically, has risen significantly. In fact, India has become a major buyer of Russian oil, despite the U.S. and EU sanctions imposed on Moscow. This shift in India's energy strategy, coupled with two other significant factors, has raised questions about the future of the Russia-India oil axis.

Firstly, India's demand for energy is expected to nearly double by 2040, driven by its growing GDP. The country's energy consumption is projected to overtake that of the European Union by 2030, and it will be fueled by a substantial GDP growth. Reliance Industries' Jamnagar supersite, the world's largest single-location refining complex, plays a crucial role in this demand growth, with a capacity of 1.4 million barrels per day.

Secondly, India has demonstrated a willingness to counter China's aggressive expansion across Asia-Pacific, reflecting a shift in the relationship between India and China. This change is further highlighted by the military clash between India and China in the Galwan Valley in June 2020.

Lastly, the UAE, a strong candidate for signing the Abraham Accords, has maintained a close relationship with India, which has already led to major energy sector deals. This relationship, along with India's growing dependence on Russian oil, has contributed to the complex dynamics between the U.S., key Middle East states, and India.