Why Republicans are on the back foot ahead of US midterm elections

Next week, millions of Americans will head to the polls to elect representatives for the 120th US Congress. These midterm elections, which occur every two years, play a crucial role in shaping the second half of presidential terms. This year's elections come as the country faces a political pressure cooker of lawsuits, electoral disputes, and accusations of interference from all sides of the political spectrum.

President Donald Trump is bracing for the first nationwide electoral test of his second term. Midterm elections consist of all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and around a third of the 100 Senate seats. This cycle, 36 governorships will also be on the ballot, along with various state-level contests for legislators and local officials.

Historically, the president's party has suffered in midterms. For example, George W. Bush's Republicans lost 30 House seats in 2006 and Democrats suffered a significant defeat, known as a "shellacking," in Barack Obama's first midterm. Republicans are unlikely to defy this trend in 2026, as top election forecaster Charlie Cook predicts a Democratic sweep of the House.

While the Republican majority in the Senate may be harder to overturn, Democrats need only a net gain of four seats to win back the chamber. This could hinge on the results of about seven competitive races in various states, including Kansas, Ohio, Alaska, and Iowa, which could potentially see Democrats elect their first senators in decades.

Republicans are reportedly pouring money into defending these seats, fearing that historically Republican strongholds could now be under threat. However, the midterms are ultimately a referendum on the sitting president, and President Trump's approval rating is underwater in 47 of the 50 US states. Americans do not trust him on various issues and a sizeable enthusiasm gap exists between Democratic and Republican voters.