S&P Global earnings analysis: questions answered and next catalysts

On October 27, 2026, S&P Global (SPGI) surpassed analyst estimates, but the market's initial reaction was mixed. The stock opened at $470 and fell to $448.42 by early trading, below its previous close of $450.65. This suggests that investors were enthusiastic about the guidance but hesitated to pay a premium for it. Q2's miss was not repeated, as Q3 EPS increased to $4.58, beating expectations of $4.42 by 3.6%. Revenue also grew, reaching $3.68 billion compared to $3.64 billion in Q2.

The market reacted positively to the guidance, which was raised to a range of 17-18.5% growth, up from 12-14% in the previous quarter. Ratings were upgraded to 6.5-8. The energy sector and market intelligence were expected to grow at 4.5-6% and 5.5-7%, respectively, with no change in other areas.

Management reaffirmed its commitment to a substantial buyback program, promising to repurchase over $7 billion of shares throughout the year and forecasting about $1.6 billion in Q4 adjusted free cash flow. Despite the bullish outlook, the stock remains down 14% year-to-date and 19% below its 52-week high of $552.25.

Bullish investors see the raised guidance, large buyback, and still-solid cash flow as compelling reasons to support the stock. However, skeptics point to the initial 5% gap between the beat and the stock's reaction, as well as the declining estimates for the past year, as reasons to be cautious. For the fiscal year 2026, S&P Global is projected to generate $14.83 billion in revenue, down from $15.34 billion in 2025, likely due to the Mobility spin-off.