OPEC+ Set to Keep Oil Quotas Unchanged

Sources familiar with OPEC+ plans inform Reuters that the key producers are expected to maintain their oil quotas unchanged for the December meeting. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman have kept their targeted output steady following a phased rollback of 1.65 million barrels per day in September, as agreed in 2023.

However, these targets have remained on paper for the past eight months due to the Middle East conflict disrupting crude oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Gulf producers initially slashed output in the spring, but as flows through Hormuz increased in August and September, many producers raised their output, nearing pre-war levels.

Despite this rise in oil exports, many Gulf producers still produce below their quotas. OPEC+ has been raising monthly production quotas throughout 2026, with the September increase completing the phased rollback. However, much of the additional supply has not reached the market when needed. The war in Iran has hindered Gulf exports via Hormuz, while the war in Ukraine has affected Russia and Kazakhstan's exports.

OPEC still has production cuts in place for the rest of 2026. Now, the focus is on 2027 production baselines, which determine how individual countries' quotas are calculated. The group, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, is shifting its focus to debates about the 2027 quotas, with plans to review and set baselines for future cuts.