MGS could face renewed volatility as US Fed look at rates

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) yields and foreign fund flows could face renewed volatility following the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting, according to experts. The US rate decision may have a limited impact on Malaysian government bonds, as they are mostly held by domestic investors, according to Professor Geoffrey Williams.

Neoh Jia Man of Trade View expects the Fed to maintain interest rates, citing high energy costs and signs of a cooling US labor market. The 10-year MGS yield has fallen by over 20 basis points from its September peak, suggesting the market has largely priced in a Fed rate hold. However, a surprise rate hike could push up short-term MGS yields and accelerate foreign fund outflows, potentially affecting equities.

With a rate hold expected, Malaysian markets may be influenced more by movements in US Treasury yields. The upcoming FOMC meeting on October 27-28 is identified as a key catalyst for Malaysia's bond market, with changes in US monetary policy guidance potentially triggering a repricing of US Treasury yields and affecting MGS, particularly longer-dated securities.