Märkte Insight: Das lange Warten auf die KI-Rendite

Anthropic's recent financial report shows an extraordinary growth surge, with revenue increasing fourfold from $1.2 billion in Q1 to $16.3 billion in Q2 2026. Anthropic is no longer burning billions, but instead is hovering on the brink of profitability. These numbers, combined with growth projections, suggest the potential for a company worth billions.

Consequently, doubts about the worthiness of AI investments were dispelled at the beginning of the week. However, according to a new analysis by US asset manager Apollo, a critical factor may soon dampen the rally. Apollo's Chief Economist, Torsten Slok, succinctly summarized his findings: "Despite massive investments and widespread hype surrounding Artificial Intelligence, the technology has not brought any financial gain to American companies outside the tech sector."

Slok arrived at this conclusion using several criteria. One key metric is the revenue per employee. Among the tech giants - Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia, and Tesla - average revenue per employee has skyrocketed from $600,000 to $800,000 over the past three years. Remarkably, this metric has nearly tripled in just three years.

However, the story is quite different for the remaining 493 US companies in the S&P 500. Over the same period, their average revenue per employee remains stagnant at around $500,000. The AI promise that the same number of employees can achieve more seems to have become a reality for the tech giants. In contrast, the impact of the AI hype on the broader economy has so far been non-existent, according to Slok: "There remains no indication that AI is fueling productivity."

Slok warns that this could lead to a change of perspective outside Silicon Valley. "As long as AI spending does not affect the business results, American businesses will increasingly view AI expenditures as a cost factor rather than a growth driver, putting pressure on margins." Apollo's Chief Economist believes this perspective shift could dampen the AI rally.

While venture capitalists continue to fund AI startups with growing budgets, corporate America seems to be gravitating towards more frugal solutions, according to Slok. This shift could have implications for the AI rally: "As long as the use of agentive AI and token expenditures remains confined to a small portion of the economy, the macroeconomic impact of AI will be very limited," Slok is convinced.

The lesson for investors, according to Slok, is not to be swayed by the growth numbers of the magical seven. He cautions: "In the end, the development of AI in the S&P 493 will decide."