LNG Bunker Snapshot: Rotterdam price surges on Norwegian outages and colder forecasts

Rotterdam's LNG bunker prices surged for the fourth consecutive week, reaching $1,776/mt, according to the ARA report. The Dutch TTF Natural Gas contract, Europe's benchmark gas price, increased by $2.38/MMBtu, reaching $1,657/mt. This rise was attributed to disruptions at Norway's Troll and Asgard gas fields, colder weather forecasts in Europe, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as reported by the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC).

Analysts noted that European gas prices remain highly sensitive to Persian Gulf developments, with significant LNG flows likely absent for much of the Northern Hemisphere winter. Colder weather, low storage levels, and unplanned outages in Norway were identified as the primary drivers of price increases, with geopolitics being the main factor.

EU gas storage stood at 74.6% on October 23, up from 74.3% the previous weekend but still below last year's levels. Singapore's LNG bunker price increased by $96/mt to $1,865/mt, a smaller rise compared to Rotterdam, but the premium over the JKM benchmark also rose. Singapore's bunker price closely tracked the JKM, which climbed by $1.49/MMBtu, reaching $1,634/mt.

The premium over JKM widened, leading to a $4.45/MMBtu increase in Singapore's price. The JKM prices rose due to concerns over supply-demand imbalances, Middle East tensions, and colder-than-normal winter weather forecasts in Europe. JKM prices hit a four-year high due to stronger demand in Asia, particularly from China, South Korea, and India, and heightened concerns over winter supply security amid geopolitical uncertainties.