Israel has voted, but the coalition deadlock is just beginning - analysis
The politicians now have to decide what they are prepared to change: their conditions, their partners or their promises.
In a historic election, Israelis went to the polls in record numbers on Tuesday, their voices echoing through the nation. Exit polls released later that evening painted a picture of a divided electorate, with the so-called "change bloc" leading but lacking the partners needed to form a government.
The parties opposing the outgoing government held a clear majority of the projected seats, but they did not constitute a single bloc willing to govern together. The Arab parties played a crucial role in this, winning a combined 17 to 18 seats and denying Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a majority. However, their willingness to join forces with other parties, the so-called "change bloc," further complicated the coalition-building process.
Both Netanyahu and Yashar leader Gadi Eisenkot made bold claims of victory, highlighting their respective party leads. Netanyahu pointed to Likud's two or three-seat advantage over Yashar, while Eisenkot emphasized the numerical balance between the two blocs. However, neither was likely to form a government on their own.
Eisenkot's coalition-building efforts would require navigating through the commitments made during the campaign, which some may have considered unequivocal. The Arab parties' projected gains came from their determination to prevent a right-wing government from returning to power, but the question remains whether they can translate their seats into a governing arrangement.
One potential path for Eisenkot involves bringing in the two haredi parties, which together hold 12 seats. This move could provide a majority, but it would also place significant constraints on any proposed government, particularly regarding haredi conscription. Another possible option is a coalition comprising Likud, Yashar, Naftali Bennett's B Yachad, and Yisrael Beytenu, with 67 seats in total.
While the numerical possibilities for forming a government are clear, the real challenge lies in the political willingness of the parties involved. Netanyahu and Eisenkot will have to confront the consequences of their campaign promises, as the final decision on which coalition to support will be made by the elected representatives.
As the country awaits the official results, the focus will shift from the election results to the coalition-building process. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether the promises made during the campaign will survive the realities of government formation. Ultimately, the question will be whether the greater obligation lies in honoring campaign commitments or compromising to form a viable government.
Written by urgent.news from Jerusalem Post's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
