Indonesia can’t win with Singapore, as it depends on it for petrol, money and even the Internet

Indonesia and Singapore are experiencing strained bilateral relations, with Jakarta cutting gas deliveries to the city-state by approximately 9%. The Indonesian government claims that the cuts are within contractual limits, but this move has been met with suspicion. Just five days prior, Indonesian Minister of Energy Bahlil Lahadalia threatened a review of energy exports to countries that "disrespect" it, in response to international criticism over the country's worst haze season in over a decade.

Despite being the largest and most populous country in the region, Indonesia has been highly dependent on Singapore for petrol, money, and even the internet. Singapore has prepared itself for this dependence by building multiple liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals, with the most recent one completing construction in 2013. This reduced Singapore's reliance on Indonesian gas from 100% to under 50%, and a second terminal will further increase capacity by around 50%.

While Indonesia is still responsible for 30% of gas imports today, its vulnerability lies in its dependence on piped gas rather than LNG. Singapore's power plants are prepared to switch to diesel fuel in case of any disruptions, ensuring uninterrupted electricity production. Indonesia's dependence on Singapore extends beyond energy, as it is also the leading source of foreign direct investment in the country, accounting for 31% of the US$17.4 billion (S$22.3 billion) invested in 2025.

Singapore is also the primary destination for international internet traffic to and from Indonesia, with 90% of the traffic passing through the city-state. This means that a conflict between the two countries could result in a near total disconnect for Indonesia from the international web.