Geldanlage: Der Goldpreis hängt jetzt vom Ölpreis ab

Investors are moving away from tech stocks, favoring US Treasury bonds after concerns about the AI trade led to a sharp decline in their value over the weekend. Gold, typically considered a safe haven, failed to benefit from this shift in sentiment. In fact, gold prices even dipped below $4,000 per ounce, the lowest since early 2024.

Two factors are driving the current gold price decline: rising interest rate expectations and a stronger dollar have made the precious metal less attractive, as it yields no interest. Additionally, investors are selling gold due to losses in the stock market, as brokers may demand extra collateral during margin calls, forcing investors to liquidate other assets to cover losses.

The Bank of America predicts that rising oil prices pose the biggest short-term risk to gold, as higher oil prices can trigger inflation and put pressure on central banks to increase interest rates. While the Fed's interest rate expectations eased by the end of the week, they remain elevated for the next twelve months, with Brent crude oil prices up 10% to $114 per barrel since October.

If oil prices climb to $150 per barrel due to ongoing Middle East tensions, gold could fall to an average of $3,500 per ounce in the coming year, according to the bank's analysis. However, analysts emphasize that this is not the baseline scenario. Instead, the gold price now hinges on oil prices, and a de-escalation of the situation in the Middle East could bolster the precious metal's value.