Economy Ministry again revises 2026 GDP forecast downward

The Ministry of Economy and Environment in Ukraine has once more revised its forecast for the nation's GDP growth in 2026, downwards this time. At the beginning of the year, the projection stood at 2.4%. By June, the ministry had reduced its expectation to 1.6% for 2026 and 1.3% for the following year. However, the government has now revised its estimate once more, signaling a potential decline of 1-1.5 percentage points from the June projection.

Minister Oleksandr Kravchenko attributed the downgrade to a number of factors. These include the ongoing blockade of Ukraine's seaports, intensified Russian attacks, and the postponement of capital budget spending to the end of the year. He also estimated that damage from strikes has already amounted to around USD 8 billion, with losses anticipated to rise to USD 10 billion by the end of the year.

While most of these losses in the first half of the year were concentrated in the energy sector, the impact has now spread across all sectors of the economy.

Kravchenko emphasized the need for reserves and a range of tools to support businesses, highlighting the systemic risks for the economy and budget revenues. Notably, the state budget fell short of planned revenues by UAH 50 billion in the first nine months of 2026, with losses of UAH 32 billion in August and September.