China's industrial profit growth picks up amid deepening economic divergence

China's industrial profits accelerated in September, growing 14.4% year-over-year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. This marked a notable increase from the 4.2% rise in August, with profits for the first nine months of the year reaching 15.5%, roughly unchanged from the 15.7% increase in the prior nine-month period.

However, the sectoral disparity was evident, as profits in the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing sector more than doubled over the nine-month span, while profits in the furniture manufacturing sector plummeted by more than half, ranking among the industry's poorest performers.

Export-oriented firms are bracing for heightened uncertainty due to expanding trade surpluses, which are straining relations with trading partners, particularly Europe. Despite the robust growth in AI-related industries, CITIC Bank International's chief China economist, Ding Meng, expressed optimism about the outlook, attributing the momentum to domestic and external demand generated by the AI supply chain development.

Nonetheless, the sustainability of profit growth remains uncertain, as disparities across the economy persist. The third-quarter GDP expansion, stronger than expected at 4.5%, brought China closer to its annual growth target of 4.5% to 5.0%, yet the uneven recovery across various sectors continues to undermine corporate profitability.

Company-level data further underscore the issue, with net profit growth at the world's largest electric vehicle battery maker, CATL, slowing significantly in the latest quarter. Intense competition in the EV battery market has squeezed margins, coinciding with a downturn in China's auto sales. NBS statistician Yu Weining emphasized China's commitment to using macroeconomic policies to bolster growth, expand domestic demand, and optimize supply, highlighting a shift away from traditional growth drivers towards new ones.

Industrial profit figures encompass firms with at least 20 million yuan (US$3.0 million) in annual revenue from primary operations.