China's families are now supporting more old people than kids

China's government has reported that families in the country are now supporting more elderly people than children for the first time. According to official data, the ratio of dependent elderly individuals to the working-age population rose to 23% last year, surpassing the 22% figure for children. This shift marks a significant milestone for China as it faces the challenges of an ageing population, which could impact various aspects of society, including pensions, healthcare spending, and overall economic growth.

As China's population continues to age, the country has been preparing for this trend and encouraging younger generations to marry and have more children. Currently, there are over 223 million people aged 65 and above in China, accounting for nearly 16% of the total population. Simultaneously, there are approximately 213 million children aged 14 and under.

The change in demographics is attributed to various factors, including past birth cohorts and longer life expectancy. This shift is seen as a natural part of demographic development rather than a short-term phenomenon. Some experts argue that it could lead to increased public spending on pensions, healthcare, and long-term care, while also creating opportunities in the "silver economy" catering to older consumers.

The demographic shift may have implications for China's ambitions, as it could potentially limit economic growth and people's spending power. Professor Stuart Gietel-Basten from The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology notes that the change could shift public spending from families and schools to pensions and healthcare. However, it may also pose a challenge to the country's economic aspirations by reducing people's spending power.

China's ageing population is a result of a combination of factors, such as rapid urbanization and the effects of the controversial one-child policy, which was in place from 1980 to the end of 2015. This policy, aimed at controlling rapid population growth, is estimated to have prevented about 400 million births. However, the policy has been criticized, and its impact on the current demographic situation remains contested.

Despite easing restrictions on family size, Beijing has struggled to persuade couples to have more children, leading to historically low birth rates. Other contributing factors include changing gender roles, rising living costs, and higher education levels, which have put pressure on fertility rates. In response to the demographic changes, Beijing has included support for older people as part of its five-year economic blueprint, with financial help for pensioners becoming a growing part of government spending.