Bank of Korea warns country's chip exports could fall by up to $100 billion if AI spending slows

South Korea's semiconductor exports could face a significant decline of between $50 billion and $100 billion due to a potential slowdown in AI spending by major US technology firms in 2027, according to the Bank of Korea. The central bank modeled a pessimistic scenario to evaluate the economic consequences of US tech giants curbing their aggressive infrastructure investments.

Under this scenario, a sharp export shortfall would reduce South Korea's GDP growth rate by approximately 0.4 percentage points in 2027. This would also cause the country's current account surplus to fall well below the bank's initial projection of $430 billion for that year. The scenario assumes a 10% decrease in Korean semiconductor unit prices.

The assessment highlights growing concerns over South Korea's heavy dependence on chips, which make up roughly half of the country's exports. The report revealed that the combined capital expenditure by five major US technology firms - Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle - has been rapidly increasing, from $40 billion in 2025 to an estimated $80 billion in 2026, and is projected to reach $110 billion in 2027.

However, the Bank of Korea cautioned that there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the trajectory of AI demand and the overall memory chip business cycle.