Asia Pacific business confidence dips despite encouraging economic indicators

In Q3, the forward-looking New Orders Index in the Asia-Pacific region improved for a second consecutive quarter, reaching near its highest level ever according to the Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) from the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (ACCA) and the Institute of Management Accountants (IMA). Capital Expenditure and Employment indices also recorded decent gains, aligning with historical averages.

However, confidence among accountants in the region declined materially, shedding almost three-fifths of its significant Q2 increase. Globally, confidence only slightly decreased.

The decline in Asia-Pacific confidence may be attributed to renewed Middle East tensions and a rebound in energy prices. Despite this, key indicators generally suggest a constructive picture, driven by the US and global economies, and several countries benefiting from the AI investment boom. Geopolitical instability is the top risk priority for finance professionals in the region, with 24.1 percent of respondents ranking it first, compared to 18.4 percent globally.

Concerns over talent and skills (14.9 percent versus 10 percent globally) and supply chain disruption (9.2 percent versus 6.6 percent) also rank higher in the region.

Jonathan Ashworth, chief economist at ACCA, noted that while the global economy has shown resilience this year, downside risks remain, including a possible significant rise in energy prices and an extreme El Niño weather effect. "Anything that fuels a meaningful slowing in the AI boom would also clearly be problematic," he added.

Cost pressures remain a concern for businesses in the region, with 62 percent of Asia-Pacific respondents reporting increased operating costs in Q3, down from Q2 but still above the series average. Forty-one percent of respondents expect interest rates to rise in their country within the next three months, up from 24 percent in Q1 and 30 percent in Q2. Globally, 70 percent of accountants reported increased operating costs in Q3, and nearly 50 percent expect interest rates to rise.

Alain Mulder, senior director at IMA, stated that the global economy is experiencing a tug of war between AI-driven growth and rising energy prices, inflation, and government bond yields. He emphasized that further significant increases in energy prices and government borrowing costs would pose challenges for global growth. ACCA is celebrating 25 years in Vietnam, focusing on building a strong financial talent pool and tech-enabled skills to support the country's next phase of economic development.