Asia-focused banks face capital squeeze from rising yields

Rising bond yields and macroeconomic pressures are putting Asia-focused banks at risk of profitability challenges and weakened capital positions as they prepare to release their third-quarter earnings, according to analysts. The volatility in bond markets, sticky inflation, and fluctuating exchange rates are some of the factors contributing to these concerns.

The US Treasury yield reached a multi-year high of 5.34 percent before settling around 5.11 percent, while Japanese yields also saw a spike. The ripple effect of higher borrowing costs is now affecting regional financial institutions, causing liquidity, capital, and profit & loss issues. Harsh Wardhan Modi, co-head of APAC financials and head of Asean research at JPMorgan, highlighted the potential negative impact on banks' earnings per share, which is closely monitored by investors.

Among major Asian and Asia-focused banks, HSBC anticipates a 33% increase in pretax profit in the July-September quarter, while Standard Chartered expects flat profit compared to the previous year, and DBS Group may experience a 3.2% decline in net profit for the same period. These estimates from analysts have led to declines in the stocks of HSBC and Standard Chartered following the US Treasury rout earlier in the month, with their shares dropping by 3.8% and 9%, respectively.

Southeast Asia's largest lenders, including DBS Group and OCBC, also saw their shares fall by 3.2% and nearly 9%, respectively.

Moody's warned that Japan's rising government bond yields are causing significant unrealized losses on lenders with long-duration assets, leading to credit downgrades for select regional banks, including Norinchukin and Japan Post Bank. The impact of these higher yields on key capital ratios and dividend payouts could be mitigated by organic capital generation through strong earnings, according to Morningstar's equity analyst, Kathy Chan.

However, emerging market lenders in Southeast Asia face unique vulnerabilities, such as stubborn inflation and rising foreign exchange volatility in countries like the Philippines and Indonesia. This, coupled with a potential slowdown in wealth momentum after robust gains driven by Chinese investor inflows into Singaporean lenders, may also affect the banks' third-quarter results.