As Netanyahu faces ‘biggest’ political test, five possible outcomes for Israel

Israel is set to hold national elections on Tuesday, a critical moment that could reshape Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political future. The polls, for all 120 Knesset seats, will provide a clear picture of Netanyahu's political path; it is the first election since the October 7 Hamas attack in 2022, the deadliest security failure in Israel's history, followed by wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran.

The ruling coalition comprises far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties, steering Israel towards nationalist and religious ends. Polls indicate a close contest between the right-wing alliance led by Netanyahu and a Jewish-led opposition alliance. However, the implications of a loss at the polls are not dire; a party needs to win 61 seats to form a government, an unprecedented feat in the nation's 81-year history.

While Israelis vote for party lists, not individual candidates, more than a dozen lists are expected to surpass the 3.25% vote threshold, securing seats in the 120-seat Knesset. The main parties in contention are Likud under Netanyahu and the centrist party Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff. Eisenkot is projected to win around 23 seats, while Likud is expected to secure about 21.

CNN cites Channel 12 and Channel 14, respectively, for these projections. The race to secure the largest party has Eisenkot ahead of Netanyahu, but coalition negotiations, which may last days, weeks, or even months, will ultimately determine the outcome. Netanyahu could still ascend to power if his Likud party garners enough support from existing allies or new coalition partners.

The far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir's Jewish Power party and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism party are potential allies for Netanyahu. Ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, which have previously joined Netanyahu's alliance and later left, might also play a crucial role. Meanwhile, the opposition-led alliance, comprising four parties backing Eisenkot, is poised to unseat Netanyahu if no prime ministerial candidate is declared.

These parties include those led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and former Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman, who have not endorsed Eisenkot and aspire to the top job themselves. The Palestinian-led Joint List and Ra'am represent about 13 seats, or 20% of the population. While opposition leaders have dismissed the prospect of an alliance with them, Ra'am's leader, Mansour Abbas, remains open to such a deal if needed.

Another scenario involves a national unity government, formed during trying times like war, natural disasters, or economic crises. This broad coalition, comprising representatives of rival parliamentary groups, would see a rotating premiership and the possibility of a new election. Netanyahu and opposition leader Benny Gantz agreed to share the premiership in 2020, but their coalition failed to hold.

If talks fail to form a stable government, Netanyahu could become caretaker prime minister until a new government is established.