Why Dems’ late House reaches don’t usually pan out

Democrats are adding more and more House seats to their list of targets that they hope to flip in the upcoming election. However, according to historical data, this late push usually doesn't yield results. Since 2018, Democrats have failed to flip any of the 28 seats that were added to their "Red to Blue" list in the last two months before Election Day.

Only three out of these 28 candidates won their races, all of which were open seats. This is in stark contrast to the average performance of the "Red to Blue" program, where 73 out of 203 candidates from the previous cycles managed to flip their seats.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) tends to add the most challenging seats towards the end of the campaign for two reasons: to ensure that their best opportunities are funded first and to create a sense of momentum and expansion for donors and the media. These late additions are made with the understanding that they have a low probability of success.

Former DCCC staffer Cole Leiter explained that the committee recruits these candidates early in the cycle, hoping that the political winds will shift in their favor. However, most of these seats are unlikely to flip, but a few might.

Despite the low success rate, these late additions contribute to the narrative of a party on the offensive. They can also be beneficial for fundraising for the specific candidates and for enticing donors to contribute to specific areas. Nevertheless, these late additions are often made by Democrats who are already facing cash disadvantages against their incumbent GOP opponents.

In the current cycle, nine Democrats have been added to the "Red to Blue" list, with five of them facing fundraising deficits of over $1 million. While Democrats' poor record in these seats is somewhat self-selecting, the late additions limit the window for candidates to capitalize on the program's benefits.