SONDAGE EXCLUSIF 2027. La chute de Philippe, relégué derrière Mélenchon

Bad news for Edouard Philippe: the former Prime Minister has failed to ignite a campaign momentum and now falls within the voting intentions, ranking third behind Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The mayor of Le Havre lost 3 points in a new survey conducted by Cluster 17 for POLITICO, from 19% to 16% of voting intentions, compared to their previous study conducted on September 15th and 16th.

He is now clearly ahead of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who remains almost stable at 18.5% (-0.5). At this stage of the campaign, Mélenchon seems the best placed to qualify for the second round against Marine Le Pen, regardless of the configurations. The RN candidate, on the other hand, does not seem to be affected by the revelation of former antisemitic writings attributed to Jordan Bardella, and remains the favorite for the first round, with 33% of voting intentions when Philippe represents the central bloc, compared to 31% in their last survey.

Notably, Raphael Glucksmann, boosted by his victory in the PS primary and Public Place, jumps from 12% to 13% of voting intentions. According to Cluster 17, the social democrat would garner 29% of Emmanuel Macron's voters in 2022, which explains why only 49% of them would vote for Philippe. "Glucksmann progresses because Philippe does not sufficiently address the social-democratic wing of the moderate space," notes Jean-Yves Dormagen, president of Cluster 17.

Meanwhile, Bruno Retailleau, the candidate of the Republicans, still does not take off, but remains steady with 7.5%-8% of voting intentions. However, he has one more reason to worry: when David Lisnard, labeled Nouvelle Energie, is tested, he reaches 8%, stealing votes from Le Pen (30.5%), Retailleau (7%), and Eric Zemmour (who drops from 4% to 3.5%).

The mayor of Cannes' polling is explained by the fact that he "responds to a strong demand for centrism liberalism and even milletism among the very conservatives", according to Jean-Yves Dormagen, referring to Argentine president Javier Milei. Tested by Cluster 17, the hypothesis of Gabriel Attal standing in for Edouard Philippe offers little hope to supporters of the central bloc: the Renaissance secretary general would garner 12% of votes today, compared to 13.5% according to the same institute in September.

In this scenario, Jean-Luc Mélenchon would climb to 19.5% and Raphaël Glucksmann to 14%. The survey was conducted from October 19th to 22nd among a sample of 3,000 people, representative of the French population aged 18 and over using quota sampling. The margin of error is between 0.8 and 1.8 points.