New ‘conundrum’: Asia-US, Europe ocean rates diverge

The week ending October 23 saw minimal change in Asia-US trans-Pacific container spot rates, suggesting a market peak and potential softening throughout 2026, according to market analyst Xeneta. Average spot rates climbed 0.2% to $8,311 per FEU for Asia-US West Coast and 0.2% to $11,525 per FEU for East Coast trades. Analyst Peter Sand noted that this confirms the U.S. trades have peaked and expects them to soften through the remainder of 2026.

In contrast, Asia to North Europe rates rose 6.8% to $3,698 per FEU, while Mediterranean rates climbed 5.8% to $4,442. The significant gap between Asia-US and Asia-Europe rates presents a "conundrum," as Sand explained. Although the return of container shipping services to the Red Sea and Suez Canal should bring fleet capacity back online, demand remains strong enough to support higher rates.

European rates increased 12.2% in the first seven months of 2026, driven by robust demand from Asia, which rose 12.2% in the same period. Despite Red Sea capacity returns, European rates have not followed the decline seen in North America, staying up 33.2% from July 1 and 67% from February 28. Meanwhile, Mediterranean rates are down 36.7% from July 1 and 33% from February 28.

On the trans-Atlantic route, North Europe-US East Coast rates dipped 0.2% to $2,963 per FEU, still 16% above July 1 and 101% above pre-Hormuz crisis levels. This divergent trend indicates that reducing Red Sea route reliance alone won't determine the speed at which container shipping costs decline. While U.S. importers may see declining rates, strong European demand is fueling further increases, even with additional fleet capacity becoming available.