Lula’s Victory in Brazil Is a Defeat for Trumpism

On October 25, 2026, Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured a remarkable victory in the presidential runoff election, winning 51.79% of the vote and defeating far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro by nearly 4.4 million votes. At 80 years old, Lula's triumph was a remarkable turnaround after trailing his opponent by 2.2 million votes in the first round just three weeks prior.

Brazil, the largest country and economy in Latin America, had become the stage for a test of whether the region's rightward shift could be halted. While Lula's victory dealt a setback to President Donald Trump's ambition to build a hemisphere of aligned governments, interpreting the result as a triumph for the left would be misguided.

High abstention rates, with over 33 million Brazilians not voting in the first round, highlighted a broader problem of political alienation. Many voters were less concerned with choosing a president and more focused on ensuring their opponent was not elected. Flávio, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently serving 27 years in prison for crimes against democracy, capitalized on voters' trust issues.

Despite Brazil's economic success during Lula's third term, with low unemployment, falling poverty, and real wage growth, many young Brazilians and informal workers turned to market-oriented politics and conservatism. This shift was partly due to the struggle of formal employment, labor unions, and traditional social protections to serve an increasingly informal workforce.

Lula's campaign recognized these vulnerabilities and intensified its efforts to mobilize the voters who had stayed home in the first round. He embraced digital outreach, speaking directly to younger Brazilians and informal workers, and expanded his coalition beyond the traditional left.