Lula’s Suprise Win Blocks Trump’s Push for a Far-Right Brazil

This article, published in partnership with Agência Pública, Brazil’s largest nonprofit newsroom, details the surprising victory of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil’s presidential runoff election. Two weeks prior, US Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s son, Conor, married Giulia Be, a pop star linked to Brazil’s right-wing Marinho family, which is close to former President Jair Bolsonaro.

Shortly after the wedding, supporters of Flávio Bolsonaro—a candidate in the election—handed out inflatable missiles with the message "Trump nuke Brazil" at a rally in São Paulo. This gesture may have raised concerns among supporters of Lula or Brazilians who prioritize the country's independence. However, the far-right's growing influence in Brazilian politics and their desire for closer ties with the Trump administration is just the tip of the iceberg.

With more than 99% of votes counted, Lula secured 51.77% of the vote, compared to Bolsonaro’s 48.23%. This marks the first time a candidate has won the presidential election after coming in second in the first round. Flávio Bolsonaro has yet to concede. Brazil has a reputation for efficient vote counting, but this election saw the results delayed by a two-hour extension of the voting deadline after the Supreme Court extended voting hours in response to electoral court complaints from both campaigns.

Lula's reelection for a fourth term in a critical dispute over the future of the Amazon forest dampens the hopes of the MAGA world for a victory for Flávio Bolsonaro, who is currently serving a 27-year sentence in house arrest for attempting a coup d'état following his failed re-election bid in 2022. Former deputy assistant secretary of defense for western affairs, Jana Nelson, stated that "a turn to the right for Brazil" would fulfill the Trump administration's goal of having more right-wing leaders in the hemisphere.

Lula emphasized that Brazil does not "fit into anyone's backyard" and that its destiny is for the Brazilian people to decide.

Flávio, in his CPAC speech, hinted at a closer relationship with Washington, stating that Brazil would be a "battleground where the future of the hemisphere will be fought" due to its vast reserves of rare earth minerals, which are essential for various industries. This relationship with the US has been marked by tension in the past, with the Trump administration imposing tariffs on Brazilian goods, sanctions on judicial authorities, and revoking Brazil’s ambassador's visa.

Lula accused the Bolsonaro family of being "subordinate to American interests." After Flávio's appearance at CPAC, his brother André Marinho, a businessman and former gubernatorial candidate for Rio de Janeiro, traveled to the United States and met with Vice President JD Vance, reportedly arranged by RFK Jr. Marinho discussed the expansion of organized crime in Rio de Janeiro and connections between criminal groups and international networks, according to reporting by Brazilian journalist Guilherme Amado.