LOCAL ELECTIONS 2026: Four eThekwini polls show MK’s possible paths to power
According to polls, the MK party is the strong favourite to win eThekwini. But will it need to form a coalition to lead the City?
Four recent polls in eThekwini indicate the MK party is the front-runner for victory. However, it may require forming a coalition to lead the city. MKP has been the top choice in every survey, while opposition parties can only form a majority coalition in two out of four scenarios. In the Common Sense/Social Research Foundation poll, the DA, ANC and IFP have a clear majority, while Ipsos shows MKP with a clear majority.
Two recent polls show either an MKP-led coalition or majority, or a DA-led coalition, similar to the Government of Provincial Unity. MKP's chances seem stronger in the News24/Sabi and eNCA/Markdata polls. The EFF's value to either coalition and the DA's stance on EFF inclusion could impact the rest of the province. The SRF/TCS poll shows MKP with the smallest plurality and far from an outright majority.
Based on the seats allocated to DA, ANC and IFP, the three could form a majority coalition together. MKP would need the ANC or IFP plus a few more seats. The News24/Sabi poll places MKP in the middle, needing 16 seats for a majority, including from other parties. The DA's refusal to include the EFF would be irrelevant in this scenario.
The eNCA/Markdata poll could challenge the DA's opposition stance, potentially making MKP and EFF an outright majority. Two years ago, IFP, ANC and DA had just enough seats with NFP to keep MKP out of power. An MKP-EFF coalition could benefit both parties and form the backbone of other provincial agreements.
Written by urgent.news from Daily Maverick's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
