Likud files police complaint against Eisenkot campaign manager over Polymarket post
Likud claims Eisenkot’s campaign manager broke election law by sharing a Polymarket forecast giving Eisenkot a 52% chance of becoming prime minister, versus 28% for Netanyahu.
The Likud party has filed a police complaint against Ronen Manelis, the campaign manager for Gadi Eisenkot, for allegedly violating Israel's election campaigning law. The complaint centers around a post shared by Manelis on the social media platform X, which featured probabilities of Gadi Eisenkot becoming the next Israeli prime minister, as predicted by the online forecasting website Polymarket.
The post suggested a 52% chance of Eisenkot securing the position, compared to 28% for current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and included a photo of Eisenkot in IDF uniform. The Likud party argues that Manelis shared the post without properly contextualizing the figures, which come from a forecasting platform rather than a public opinion poll conducted using accepted statistical methods.
They claim this violates the law by potentially influencing voters through illegal means. The complaint emphasizes that the figures represent the probability of a political outcome, not a candidate's level of voter support. Likud views the sharing of the post as an attempt to influence voters, especially since it was shared by Manelis, who runs Eisenkot's campaign.
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