LatAm and Africa Prediction Markets, Week of 26 Oct
Polymarket gave Lula 18.5% on voting day, and bets on a Brazil rate cut fell from 90.5% to 24.5% in a week. See what traders expect next. The post LatAm and Africa Prediction Markets, Week of 26 Oct appeared first on The Rio Times .
Prediction markets provide insights into future events through real-money bets, allowing investors, campaigns, and newsrooms to gauge probabilities. These markets track events across Latin America and Africa, offering valuable information on political outcomes, economic indicators, and geopolitical developments. According to Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction exchange, Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula received 51.79% of the vote on election day, winning the election with 3.6 points more than his closest competitor.
This resounding victory surprised prediction markets, which had previously given Lula only an 18.5% chance of winning. Meanwhile, Brazil's central bank rate saw a shift in predictions, with traders now giving a 58% chance of a pause in the Selic rate on November 4, up from 9% a week prior. In Mexico, bets on the third-quarter growth of 3.5% or more rose from 12% to 32%, reflecting a potential sharp increase in the country's economic performance.
Polymarket also reported a significant jump in the probability of Justice Alexandre de Moraes being removed from Brazil's Supreme Federal Court by the end of 2026, from 21.0% to 4.5%. Despite these shifts, Polymarket's predictions should be considered alongside official polls and election results, as they represent market probabilities rather than definitive outcomes.
Written by urgent.news from The Rio Times's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
