IEA's Birol does not expect energy markets to return to pre-war levels in 2027
SINGAPORE: The head of the International Energy Agency said on Monday that he does not expect energy markets in 2027 to return to where they were before the Iran war, which began in late February. The conflict sharply tightened a market that had been projected to be in surplus this year, significantly disrupting global energy flows and pushing up oil benchmarks and refined product prices. “I am…
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol warned on Monday that he does not anticipate energy markets returning to pre-Iran war levels by 2027. The ongoing conflict has significantly disrupted global energy flows and caused oil prices to soar. "I am afraid I don’t see any credible pathway that the markets will go next year, where we were before this war has started,” Birol stated at the Singapore International Energy Week conference.
Brent crude futures reached a six-month high of $117 a barrel, still 59% above pre-war levels despite easing on Monday. Refined product prices have also surged to even higher levels. Birol emphasized the need for countries and companies to prioritize energy security. He noted that while oil prices may be more affordable in some regions, they are having a major impact on trade deficits in many parts of the world.
Concerns also arise about winter demand for fuels, particularly diesel used for heating in certain areas. Birol expressed worry about the impact of reduced gas imports from Russia due to the Iran war, compounded by Qatar and the Emirates' inability to export gas. The nuclear sector is expected to see a "strong comeback," as 90 gigawatts of nuclear power plants are currently under construction, the highest in four decades, according to the IEA's recent survey.
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