How El Niño may affect Nigerians, other facts

El Niño, a climate pattern marked by warmer-than-normal sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, could significantly impact Nigeria, particularly its rainfall patterns. The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has warned that the developing El Niño event, described as a "super El Niño," may bring above-normal temperatures and shift rainfall patterns across the country.

In the August-to-October 2026 forecast, NiMet predicted wetter-than-normal conditions in northern Nigeria, including states like Sokoto, Kebbi, Zamfara, Katsina, Kano, Yobe, Borno, Bauchi, and Jigawa. Conversely, drier-than-normal conditions were expected in parts of southern Nigeria, particularly Oyo, Ogun, Osun, Ekiti, Edo, and Delta states, with Kogi and parts of Benue State also likely to experience reduced rainfall.

These changes could have far-reaching effects on agriculture, water supply, and public health. Farmers in affected areas may need to adapt their planting schedules and manage their crops in response to altered rainfall patterns. Reduced rainfall could lead to lower crop yields, while excessive rainfall may cause flooding and damage farmland.

The agency advised farmers to monitor their fields for increased risks of pests, diseases, and weeds during wetter conditions, and to clear drainage channels to mitigate flood damage. Reduced water inflows due to lower rainfall could also put pressure on domestic, agricultural, and industrial water supplies, potentially affecting water availability for various uses.

From a health perspective, changes in rainfall and temperature could lead to the spread of vector-borne diseases like malaria, as well as threaten food production, potentially resulting in malnutrition. While El Niño does not directly cause diseases like typhoid, it can create conditions that facilitate their spread through altered environments and weakened food safety systems.

Residents, businesses, and agricultural stakeholders should remain vigilant and prepare for potential changes in weather patterns as the El Niño event unfolds.