El Niño threatens to deepen southern Africa’s poverty crisis

An anticipated El Niño drought, coupled with escalating costs and diminishing humanitarian assistance, could exacerbate food insecurity and poverty across southern Africa in 2027. South Africa's robust grain harvest and water reserves provide some protection; however, regional food shortages may heighten demand for supplies and exports.

Wandile Sihlobo, the Presidential Envoy on Agriculture and Land, chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, and senior research fellow at Stellenbosch University, highlights the significance of October as a pivotal month for global agricultural and food organizations. World Food Day, commemorated on the 16th, marks the UN Food and Agriculture Organization's founding in 1945 and serves as an opportunity for countries to assess their food security status and devise strategies to bolster resilience and contribute to poverty reduction efforts.

However, this year's World Food Day celebrations have taken on a more somber tone, as the outlook for 2027 appears dire, particularly in southern Africa. Ongoing geopolitical conflicts have led to rising costs, affecting energy prices and disrupting supply chains. Moreover, the impending El Niño drought could potentially worsen poverty across most of southern Africa.

The Food and Agriculture Organization warns that the region may face a drought worse than the 2015-16 crisis, which left 61 million people in need of assistance, strained livestock, water systems, and pastures, and pushed over 8 million people into food insecurity. The forecast indicates a greater than 50% probability of agricultural drought affecting large parts of Namibia, Botswana, Angola, Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, and parts of Mozambique and Madagascar.

With global humanitarian aid dwindling due to conflicts in the Black Sea and Middle East and the US Administration's decision to terminate US Aid, the World Food Programme's budget, heavily reliant on US Aid funding, will have fewer resources to address the crisis. Consequently, if the anticipated drought severely impacts agricultural production, southern Africa may confront a more challenging period than in recent times, particularly concerning food supplies.

Currently, the region is already grappling with farmers beginning to plant crops for the 2026-27 season, while governments have a limited window to provide assistance. To mitigate the impact of potential food shortages, countries with import capabilities must ensure access to food supplies, and the private sector must secure a clear pathway for imports.

In cases where grain imports are restricted, such as bans on non-genetically-modified grains, these prohibitions may need to be lifted temporarily. Ensuring feed supplies for livestock is another crucial consideration. In cases where fiscal resources permit, household assistance may be necessary, contingent on the severity of the season's outcome.

While some countries possess agricultural supplies in the region, imposing export bans to safeguard domestic supplies could exacerbate the situation by discouraging agribusiness expansion and causing price volatility, further straining importing nations. Transparent and timely information sharing is vital to enable market participants to make informed decisions, and prices should adjust swiftly to reflect each country's specific circumstances within the region.

As for South Africa, the country finds itself in a better position than many other areas of southern Africa. The 2025-26 season was characterized by abundant grains and oilseeds, ensuring ample supplies to sustain the nation through the following year. South Africa's maize harvest is projected to reach a record 17.5 million tonnes, surpassing annual consumption of 12.0 million tonnes.

Additionally, stocks were plentiful at the beginning of the year, further bolstering supplies. South Africa's agribusinesses are also better equipped to import during supply disruptions, and the country's water reservoirs are over 80% full, potentially shielding irrigation-dependent crops and vegetables from the anticipated challenges faced by other regions.

Despite this advantage, southern Africa is expected to witness an increase in poverty levels in 2027 due to the El Niño drought. While South Africa may be equally susceptible to the drought's effects as the rest of the region, the impact may be comparatively less severe. Nevertheless, South Africa may still need to support its neighbors and export produce to stabilize regional food needs.