BTG projeta queda de 30% do Ibovespa em dólar e juro real em 8%
O BTG Pactual prevê um selloff de ativos brasileiros nas próximas semanas. O banco projeta uma queda de 17% do Ibovespa para cerca de 170 mil pontos – o patamar em que estava no fim de agosto e abaixo dos 192 mil pontos antes do primeiro turno. Para o investidor estrangeiro, o estrago deve ser maior: combinada à desvalorização cambial, a queda da Bolsa em dólares poderá chegar a 30%, segundo o…
The Brazilian asset management firm BTG Pactual predicts that the Brazilian stock market, the Ibovespa, could see a 17% drop to around 170,000 points, below 192,000 points before the first round of voting. Foreign investors may face a larger decline, up to 30%, if currency depreciation combines with market sell-off. The bank estimates the Brazilian real could depreciate between 10% and 15% against the dollar.
The Ibovespa of Petrobras and Vale, for example, trades at 10.9 times forward 12-month earnings, with an 8.4% discount to the historical average. The bank expects this multiple to fall below the average standard deviation, reflecting deteriorating expectations for interest rates and the economy. Long-term real interest rates, currently at 6.7%, could exceed 8% and remain at this level if there is no credible fiscal policy, BTG states.
If real long-term interest rates rise, higher inflation expectations and a depreciating currency could prevent the Central Bank from accelerating its short-term rate cuts, the bank warns. BTG advises investing in export-oriented companies, those with low leverage and revenue less dependent on the domestic cycle. Companies mentioned include Gerdau, Suzano, Vale, Prio, SLC Agrícola, 3tentos, São Martinho, WEG, and Embraer.
The bank also highlights companies with solid balance sheets, low leverage, or positive cash positions, such as Caixa Seguridade, Porto Seguro, and Ambev. Among large-cap companies, Petrobras, benefited by exposure to oil and the dollar, and Itaú, seen as the best-positioned Brazilian bank to navigate an adverse economic scenario, are highlighted.
The report also compares market behavior following the 2018 and 2022 presidential elections, showing how economic policy direction and interest rate expectations influenced stock performance. In the 12 months following Jair Bolsonaro's 2018 victory, the Ibovespa rose 26.2%, while in Lula's first year after the 2022 election, the index fell 1.8%.
After 12 months, 81.2% of analyzed stocks had positive returns in the 2018 case, compared to 52.2% in 2022. The election also negatively impacted domestic economy-linked sectors, with the B3 consumer index falling 10.9%, financial institutions down 10.1%, and the real estate index losing 13.1% in the first month after Bolsonaro's win, compared to a 12.8% gain in basic materials.
Written by urgent.news from Brazil Journal's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
