XENETA: Far East to Europe spot rates rise despite Red Sea return as demand overrides supply

Xeneta's latest Weekly Ocean Container Shipping Market Update reveals a surprising trend: spot rates from Far East to Europe are increasing despite the return of container services to the Red Sea, as demand outweighs supply. Peter Sand, Xeneta's Chief Analyst, explains that spot rates from the Far East to North Europe and the Mediterranean have risen by 6.8% and 5.8% respectively compared to last week.

This comes after a steady decline since July, where rates reached a "invisible floor" last week and are now starting an upward trend. Sand notes that this is unusual, as the return of capacity should ease pressure on rates, but the opposite is happening. Spot rates remain 67% higher into North Europe and 33% higher into the Mediterranean compared to pre-Hormuz crisis levels on February 28th.

The explanation for this lies in strong demand, with volumes shipped from the Far East to Europe up by 12.2% in the first seven months of the year. Despite disruptions like conflicts in the Middle East causing volatility, demand has proven to be a strong upward force for rates. If there's no demand, rates will collapse, but the strong demand on European fronthauls has prevented this, even as Red Sea capacity returns.

Sand also reports that spot rates from the Far East to the US West Coast and US East Coast are essentially flat, up only 0.2% each. This suggests that the US trades have peaked and are expected to soften in the remainder of 2026. United States East Coast rates remain more than three times those into North Europe.