Where Will Neurocrine Biosciences Be in 5 Years?

In the fiscal year 2026, Neurocrine Biosciences reported a significant revenue increase, reaching $959 million, marking a 39% growth year over year. Their main product, Ingrezza, continues its upward trajectory with double-digit sales growth, while two newer treatments aid the company's expansion beyond its original neurological disease focus. Neurocrine is also nearing key clinical milestones, such as late-stage trial results for experimental treatments targeting depression and schizophrenia.

By 2031, the company is expected to be substantially larger, potentially generating over $6 billion in annual revenue. However, whether its stock mirrors this growth will depend on the success of its newer drugs and investor willingness to pay for its earnings.

Ingrezza, a treatment for tardive dyskinesia and Huntington's disease-related chorea, saw Q2 sales of $716 million, up 15% from $624 million the previous year. Management has raised its full-year 2026 forecast for Ingrezza sales to between $2.825 billion and $2.875 billion. Despite competition from Teva Pharmaceuticals' Austedo, Ingrezza is expected to remain Neurocrine's largest product by 2031, although its dependence should lessen significantly.

Crenessity, approved in December 2024 for classic congenital adrenal hyperplasia, experienced a remarkable 247% sales increase in Q2, reaching $184 million compared to $53 million the prior year. Annualized, this makes Crenessity's revenue run rate about $736 million, which could grow substantially by 2031. Neurocrine acquired Soleno Therapeutics for around $2.9 billion in May, adding Vykat XR to its portfolio.

This drug treats hyperphagia in Prader-Willi syndrome patients, generating $54 million in sales since its May 18 acquisition. Combined, Crenessity and Vykat XR already generate over $1 billion in annualized revenue.

Neurocrine has several experimental treatments in late-stage trials, including Osavampator for major depressive disorder and direclidine for schizophrenia. Both are expected to yield trial results in 2027 and could target much larger markets if successful. The company is also developing treatments for Alzheimer's disease and epilepsy.

With Q2 revenue of $959 million, Neurocrine's annualized run rate stands at about $3.84 billion, which could grow to $6.18 billion with a 10% compounded annual growth rate or $6.76 billion with a 12% rate. Achieving these growth scenarios hinges on Ingrezza's continued growth, the expansion of Crenessity and Vykat XR, and the successful commercialization of Neurocrine's pipeline candidates.