Trump's foreign policy imperilling Republicans in midterms

Foreign policy rarely determines the outcome of United States midterm elections, as economic factors typically guide voters' choices. However, this time is different, as Donald Trump's actions in Iran and his tariff campaign are causing economic hardship for Americans, creating a direct link between his foreign policy and their pocketbook.

A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll reveals that 78% of Americans blame Trump's policies for rising prices outpacing their earnings. This is the first time since 2006, when George W. Bush's Republicans lost both legislative chambers while mired in the unpopular Iraq war, that a US leader's handling of international events has been so central to shaping the midterms outcome.

Political backlash for Trump could be significant, with opinion polls showing voters are experiencing the economic impact of his war and other policies more acutely than in the past. Trump's approval ratings are at historic lows, and he has left little doubt that he views the connection between his foreign policy and voters' cost of living.

His controversial policy moves, such as lifting sanctions on Russian diesel exports and pressuring Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian refineries, reinforce the perception that he is siding with adversaries in their conflicts. Despite his promises not to order new attacks on Iran before the midterms, analysts say Trump's handling of global affairs could have far-reaching consequences.

Democrats are expected to gain control of the House of Representatives in the midterms, but the Senate remains uncertain. Even with a shift in the balance of power, lawmakers will struggle to curb Trump's capacity to pursue foreign policy as he sees fit.