Machthaber unter Druck: Richtungswahl entscheidet über die Zukunft Serbiens

On Sunday, approximately 6.5 million Serbs were required to vote in a new parliamentary election. This vote would not only determine the distribution of the 250 seats, but also the direction Serbia would take: towards a democratic future with the prospect of European Union membership, or into a Russian-style autocracy, as seems to be Aleksander Vucic's goal.

Vucic, the leader of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) since 2012, has been the country's political figure in varying capacities. Critics accuse him of corruption, erosion of democracy, and ties to organized crime. He stepped down as president at the end of September to potentially become the Prime Minister if his party wins the election.

The major challenger is the new Student Movement, which has gained some chance of victory according to several surveys. It emerged from protests following the collapse of a tram disaster in the north Serbian city of Novi Sad in November 2024, where 16 people lost their lives. The movement gained attention through university occupancies, road blockades, and organized marches across the country, reaching remote villages.

They connected with indifferent, apathetic or habitually voting for the government party people, convincing many of the need for change.

Student Movement leader Ilija Srdanovic, a respected cardiologist from Novi Sad, is backed by academics, doctors, and artists. Their eleven-point program, titled "Serbia or the Mafia," promises restoration of the rule of law and democracy, and pursuing corruption and crime among the current leaders. European interest in the Student Movement's program does not revolve around future Serbia-EU relations, as no majority of Serbs supports EU membership anymore.

EU negotiations have stagnated since 2014, primarily due to the negative propaganda against the EU and the glorification of Russia and China by the Vucic media.

The EU has a vested interest in ending the corrupt rule of Vucic, as it is the only European country besides Russia that has not taken Ukraine sanctions. Russian agents and influencers move around Serbia with impunity, potentially sabotaging EU countries like Germany. Vucic supports Bosnian Serb nationalists with Serbian and Russian support in their goal to secede from Bosnia.

However, Vucic also courts Western economic interests, offering generous incentives for investors, including limited worker rights and dismantling the lithium extraction in the Jadar Valley despite strong public resistance.

Despite the "referendum atmosphere", a Student Movement victory is far from certain. Vucic's SNS party's extensive "election machinery" includes intimidation of voters with party thugs, vote buying, and a poorly maintained voter register. Control over extensive media is another Vucic advantage. While the government believes they can win the election, they cannot do so democratically, according to election researcher Vukosava Crnjanski.