Economic stakeholders see monetary tightening as MPC set to meet on Monday

Economic stakeholders anticipate a 50- to 100-basis-point increase in interest rates during the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Monday, in response to soaring inflation driven by costly Middle East conflict-induced oil imports. The current policy rate stands at 11.5 per cent.

Rashid Masood Alam, a senior banker, is confident that the central bank will hike interest rates by 50 basis points, with the market pushing for a more substantial 100bps increase to effectively tackle rising inflation. The looming threat of US attacks on Iran is also expected to fuel inflation, prompting the central bank to take action.

While a 50bps hike is considered a balanced approach, preserving confidence and monetary stability, analysts and bankers argue that a 100bps hike would be more effective in curbing inflation. However, such a significant hike would increase borrowing costs for both the government and the private sector, with limited additional benefits compared to a measured 50bps increase.

All major central banks, including the Reserve Bank of India, have raised interest rates, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global inflation to reach 4.7 per cent in 2026, with a projection of 4.1 per cent for 2027. Inflation remains a formidable challenge, with the government facing difficulties in achieving growth while maintaining stability.