Crude nears $120 as W Asia risks collide with Fed rate decision: Analysts

Global crude oil prices are nearing a USD 120 per barrel milestone, driven by heightened tensions in West Asia and the imminent US Federal Reserve policy announcement, which has investors on edge. Analysts anticipate a week of volatility as supply disruptions loom large. Brent Crude futures for December delivery reached USD 117.38 per barrel, marking a 7% increase last week, while WTI futures climbed 4.3% to reach USD 103.27 per barrel.

In India, MCX November crude oil futures surged 4.32% to Rs 9,800 per barrel over the holiday-shortened week. West Asia's escalating tensions, including US-Iran conflicts and Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure, have raised supply concerns. Ajit Mishra, Religare Broking SVP - Research, predicts crude prices could hit USD 120 if geopolitical instability impacts energy infrastructure or shipping lanes.

However, meaningful progress in easing tensions could prompt a sharp correction. The US Federal Reserve's October 27-28 policy decision, alongside weekly crude inventory reports from the American Petroleum Institute and US Energy Information Administration, will be closely watched by investors. Analysts believe a hawkish Fed stance could bolster the US dollar, exerting downward pressure on crude prices, though ongoing supply disruptions may limit any decline.

Despite strategic reserve releases by the International Energy Agency and G7, markets remain wary of actual supply availability. Sustained high crude prices could elevate India's import bill, weaken the rupee, and intensify inflationary pressures. Higher energy costs may also curb corporate profit margins and widen the current account deficit.

Analysts anticipate that geopolitical developments, Fed insights, and inventory data will dictate crude's next major move.