Chain-reaction chaos threatens to unleash new risks on the world
Eye-opening revelations this past week have solidified my personal fears about the year ahead: As a nation and as a globe, we're facing a record number of wild risks that are way outside our control. My growing hunch about this scenario has been bolstered by daily conversations with CEOs, government insiders and top investors. Why it matters: It feels likely — not certain — that between now and…
In recent weeks, the world has been confronted with an escalating wave of disruptive risks that threaten to rock society, economy, and politics. As a nation and as a globe, we are facing a record number of wild risks beyond our control. The growing hunch is that between now and 2028, society-level disruptions, possibly including cyberattacks and fast-twitch economic shocks, are likely, though not certain.
We have previously navigated single-shot crises like the 2008 financial meltdown and the 2020 pandemic. However, the next year will be different, as the real risk is a chain reaction of one shock setting off others faster than we can process. This scenario is referred to as chain-reaction chaos. It is exacerbated by the age of post-processable velocity, where the speed of change exceeds the ability of any individual, company, market, or government to fully absorb, understand, and respond.
The mounting risks include cyber chaos, AI bubble bursts, AI hitting its true RSI (recursive self-improvement), war expansion and oil spikes, and an aging, unrestrained president. Cyber threats have recently become more severe, with PHP code flaws knocking government sites offline worldwide and major banks finding unauthorized AI agents inside customer accounts. AI companies and banks are scrambling to plan for potential cyber hits in the coming months.
AI companies and major banks are heavily investing in AI, often through borrowed money, which increases the risk of a bubble burst and widespread economic and political pain. If AI bubble bursts or prices collapse, markets could tumble fast. The surge in AI development could also lead to more advanced AI, which could cause more urgent threats to industries, companies, and jobs.
The risk of war between Iran and the U.S. is also increasing, along with oil prices spiking to $120 a barrel. An aging and unrestrained president, such as Trump, poses a significant risk due to the increased chances of mental decline and incapacitation in one's 80s. The expert journalists at Axios urge readers to be aware, vigilant, and ready to navigate these historic times.
Written by urgent.news from Axios's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
