BN dapat manfaat besar jika pendaftaran PN kekal batal, kata penganalisis

Analysts suggest that if the Perikatan Nasional (PN) registration remains canceled, Barisan Nasional (BN), particularly Umno, would stand to gain significantly. Azmi Hassan, from the Nusantara Academy, stated that without PN, PAS would face difficulties in garnering voter support and would have to compromise to form alliances with BN.

James Chin, from the University of Tasmania, added that PN remains the only obstacle for Umno in forming a direct alliance with PAS, which was evident when Umno insisted on continued discussions for the PRN Melaka with PAS, rather than with PN. Azmi pointed out that the public perception is a major factor, as the PN logo has helped soften PAS's image, particularly among non-Malay voters.

The combination's name on the dark blue background provides a simpler image, while PAS's logo featuring a moon on a green background might not be well-received by non-Muslim and non-Malay voters. This situation might force PAS to reduce its demand for more seats. BN has clearly declared its intention to contest all 21 seats it won in the PRN Melaka 2021, including Rembia, where its representative switched to PAS before the law mandating party-switching for the state was enforced.

On Wednesday, BN's Secretary-General, Zahid Hamidi, reportedly stated that the alliance would contest 21 seats on PRN Melaka 14 Nov, while PAS and their PN allies would contest the remaining seven seats. However, PAS claimed that the seat allocation discussions had not been finalized. Earlier, the Election Registration Department (JPPM) announced the cancellation of PN registration due to the failure to clarify its basis for cancellation mentioned in the earlier notice.

However, the cancellation of registration was temporarily suspended by the High Court pending the outcome of the objection proceeding filed by PN to challenge the cancellation. Chin believes that PN's cancellation would give Umno the most significant benefit as it would be the biggest obstacle to direct Umno-PAS collaboration. By forming Bersatu, several former Umno members are involved in PN's formation.

(Thus, with PN sidelined), Umno stands to gain the most. The establishment of PN in 2020 was seen as a primary factor leading to the collapse of the Muafakat Nasional alliance between Umno and PAS. Chin added that the cancellation of PN registration would also allow PAS to focus on forming a strong coalition with Umno. Although Wawasan, Gerakan, and MIPP face the risk of losing out, while Umno's prospects become clearer, the cancellation of PN registration might adversely affect other component parties in the alliance, such as Wawasan, Pejuang, Gerakan, and MIPP.

Wawasan has a poorly known logo, so the party relies heavily on using PN's logo. Wawasan, which contested on the PN ticket, won three seats in the PRN Negeri Sembilan on 1 August. Azmi believes that the cancellation of PN registration gives PAS and Wawasan more flexibility to restructure their alliance, although this step might weaken their collaboration with Gerakan and MIPP.

He expects Pejuang, Gerakan, and MIPP not to participate in PRN Melaka, while PAS might only contest around seven seats with Wawasan, which he predicts will be divided between PAS and Wawasan.