Prediction: Here’s Where SpaceX Stock Will Trade on Its 1-Year IPO Anniversary
SpaceX made IPO history in June. But how will its stock perform one year later?
SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) on June 12, 2026, was the largest in stock market history. The company's shares are now trading near their IPO price, nearly five months after the IPO. SpaceX's share price on June 12, 2027, the first anniversary of its IPO, will depend on several key developments. The company's next quarterly earnings report could significantly impact its stock price, as it did recently when SpaceX beat expectations.
The expiration of SpaceX's 180-day lockup on December 8, 2026, will allow founder Elon Musk to sell his 6.4 billion shares, potentially creating downward pressure on the stock. SpaceX is also exploring a merger with Tesla, though Musk has indicated it's not a certainty. The company's eligibility for inclusion in the S&P 500 in mid-2027 hinges on demonstrating profitability, which relies on SpaceX's quarterly earnings reports.
Three scenarios are presented for SpaceX's stock price on June 12, 2027. The bullish case predicts the stock will trade between $220 and $240, representing a 50% upside. The bearish case envisions the stock trading between $90 and $110, a 30% decline from the current price. The base case scenario suggests the stock will be between $165 and $185, a 14% increase.
While Wall Street favors the bullish scenario, the author predicts the stock will be closer to $200 on the IPO anniversary, acknowledging the numerous uncertainties surrounding SpaceX but emphasizing its potential as one of the most important companies of the 21st century.
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