Oil surges over $3 as Brent tops $116 on Middle East supply fears

As the United States gears up for its midterm elections, President Donald Trump has increasingly pointed fingers at Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries as a cause of rising fuel prices, a situation that's proving politically challenging for the president. However, energy analysts maintain that the primary driver of higher fuel costs is the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran.

Russian targets have come under increasing drone attacks from Ukraine over the past 18 months, aimed at reducing the Kremlin's funding and weakening its capacity to fund the war. These strikes target "mostly refineries," with one Russian refinery being hit every three days on average during the first eight months of the year, according to the International Energy Agency.

This has led to a staggering 80% year-on-year drop in Russia's diesel exports, plummeting from 1.05 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2026 to just 200,000 barrels per day. In response to the fuel supply disruption, Moscow imposed a ban on diesel exports from July to the end of October. President Trump has vociferously condemned these attacks on Russian refineries, claiming Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky defied his orders to cease the strikes.

However, he has remained silent on the mounting Russian attacks on Ukrainian soil, which have resulted in a surge in civilian casualties. As Republicans struggle with low election prospects, partly due to the surging fuel prices, Trump's grievances grow. US diesel prices at the pump hit a record high of $6.53 per gallon (RM26.67) in September, up from $3.75 per gallon at the start of the war, according to the American Automobile Association.

These price surges are also contributing to inflation across the economy. Ukraine's strikes are estimated to account for "about one-third of the global diesel shortfall, currently estimated at 1.7 to 1.8 million barrels per day," according to Energy Intelligence's Julien Mathonniere. However, earlier drone strikes by Kyiv on global product prices before the Middle East crisis had minimal impact.

Energy exports from the Gulf have plummeted since US-Israeli strikes on Iran in February prompted Tehran to block the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for oil and gas transportation. Simultaneously, maritime freight costs have skyrocketed, and major refining facilities in the Middle East have been affected, further driving up oil prices.

Tensions between Kyiv and Washington have worsened after Trump announced a controversial deal with Moscow to lift sanctions and permit Russian diesel imports, ostensibly to alleviate prices. The US president expressed optimism about the end of the Russia-Ukraine war, stating that trilateral talks between Moscow, Kyiv, and Washington could be revived next month.

Yet, the strikes persist. "There's not much that can be done in the very short term to lower diesel prices," remarked Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy. Even if hostilities in the Russia conflict ended or an energy ceasefire was reached, the effect "wouldn't significantly alleviate the US midterm elections," he added. The repair of damaged infrastructure is time-consuming, while ongoing hostilities in the Middle East continue to push energy prices higher.