Nigeria’s Tinubu launches re-election campaign

President Bola Tinubu inaugurated his re-election bid on Saturday in Kaduna, a northern Nigerian city, aimed at persuading voters that economic reforms are beginning to bear fruit despite ongoing economic hardship. At 74 years old, Tinubu is set to face a tough battle in the upcoming January 16 election, where the economy and security are anticipated to be the main issues.

The main rivals include former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, who placed second and third in the 2023 polls respectively. By midday, Tinubu's supporters from the All Progressives Congress party swarmed the 10,000-capacity Ranchers Bees Stadium, with additional arrivals as the rally commenced. "Thank you for this massive turnout," Tinubu addressed the crowd as he assured, "come 2027, January 16, you must go out massively and elect me again."

Since assuming office in 2023, Tinubu has eliminated fuel subsidies, devalued the naira, and introduced other reforms that have reportedly strengthened public finances, foreign reserves, and investor confidence. Nevertheless, these measures have also triggered Nigeria's most severe cost-of-living crisis in a decade. Petrol prices surged to roughly 1,400 naira ($1.05) per liter in Lagos and Abuja in September, and up to 1,500 naira in parts of northern Nigeria, exacerbating the pressure on household budgets.

Tinubu rebuffed opposition claims of hunger and poverty, asserting that it is his rivals who are responsible for these issues. "They created the hunger. They created the poverty. We are trying to eradicate it," he stated.

Security represents another challenge for Tinubu. The nation is still grappling with armed bandits and kidnappers in the northwest and a 17-year Islamist insurgency in the northeast, where militants have intensified attacks on military positions. Despite these obstacles, Tinubu enters the race with a strong political network. His team asserts that he commands the support of 32 out of Nigeria's 36 state governors, which could provide him with an unparalleled organizational edge.

However, previous elections have demonstrated that governors cannot always deliver their states to presidential candidates. The most critical electoral test may occur in the north, where Atiku, a seasoned northern politician with a solid support base, will strive to diminish Tinubu's vote. Tinubu has affirmed that he will skip campaign rallies in all 36 states to concentrate on governing.

His party's schedule foresees him personally attending rallies in 12 states, culminating in a major final rally in his home state of Lagos on January 9.