Israel's opposition weighs minority coalition as Bennett, Liberman reject Arab support

The opposition to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is contemplating the formation of a minority government following the upcoming Israeli elections. However, prominent figures Avigdor Liberman and Naftali Bennett have expressed reluctance to support such a government, particularly if it would necessitate the inclusion of Arab parties.

A significant consensus has emerged among the parties opposing Netanyahu about the necessity for a government change. Yet, the crux of the disagreement lies in how to establish that government if the Zionist parties fail to secure a combined 61 seats. Gadi Eisenkot, a key figure in the opposition bloc, has proposed leading the coalition and becoming the primary candidate for forming the next government.

He adamantly opposes serving under Netanyahu, even in a rotational government, and has suggested that a minority government could be established with just 58 or 59 seats. This contingent plan would involve swearing in a government that garners a majority in a confidence vote, even without the permanent backing of 61 MKs, with the intention of later expanding its parliamentary base.

To achieve this, detailed agreements with partners like Bennett and Liberman are essential. Both oppose the establishment of a government dependent on the support or abstention of Arab parties. Eisenkot himself has not ruled out the possibility of garnering support from the Raam party. He has expressed confidence that progress can be made in stages, though no definitive agreement has been reached yet.

Legally, swearing in a government does not necessitate 61 votes in favor. A majority in the confidence vote suffices. Abstentions by MKs could enable a government to take office without an outright majority. However, Eisenkot's minority-government scenario might only be relevant during the process of forming a government, not in outright removing an incumbent Netanyahu government through a simple majority vote.

The biggest quandary remains: who would agree to serve in such a government, who would abstain in the confidence vote, and how would the government withstand post-swearing-in scrutiny? Liberman vehemently rejects the concept of a minority government, insisting on a Zionist majority from the outset. Bennett and Lapid, who jointly lead the Beyachad list, also demand a Zionist government and are unwilling to base its formation on Arab party votes or abstentions.

In contrast, Yair Golan, chairman of the Democratic list, has not dismissed the idea of collaborating with Raam.

The conflict among party leaders might escalate when they must decide whether to endorse the swearing-in of a government lacking a Zionist majority in the Knesset. This discord between Eisenkot and Liberman culminated in a joint statement, pledging to boost voter turnout but did not resolve their disagreement over a minority government.

Leadership competition within the anti-Netanyahu camp also persists. Eisenkot hopes to emerge as the leader of the largest party following the elections, believing this would bolster his position during consultations at the President's Residence. Conversely, Bennett views himself as a natural prime ministerial candidate, while Liberman adamantly refuses to commit to any arrangement that might lead to a government conflicting with his positions.

Ultimately, once the elections conclude, they must agree on the prime minister's identity, the coalition's composition, and the conditions for its establishment. In the meantime, the anti-Netanyahu parties are negotiating on replacing Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana, even before a coalition deal is finalized.