Israel election 2026: Who is running and can Netanyahu survive biggest test of his political career?

Israelis prepare to cast their votes on October 27 in a crucial election that may decide the fate of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, amid a tight race with the opposition. Polls indicate neither the ruling Likud party nor the opposition bloc has secured enough support to form a government with 61 seats. The 2023 Hamas attack is a central issue in the election, with voters assessing Netanyahu's response to the conflict and its aftermath.

The election will determine the composition of the 26th Knesset, Israel's parliament. Netanyahu's Likud party has formed a coalition with far-right parties, including Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit, and ultra-Orthodox parties like Shas and United Torah Judaism. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, of the Religious Zionist Party, is another key ally.

The opposition is fragmented, with centrist Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot leading the charge and former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett guiding the alliance, Beyachad. Other opposition figures include Yair Golan and Avigdor Liberman. With neither side guaranteed a majority, the election outcome hinges on coalition negotiations.

The Arab-led parties could play a pivotal role, but their inclusion remains uncertain. The ultra-Orthodox parties, too, pose challenges due to their stances on military exemptions. Possible coalition arrangements include unity, Arab-led partnerships, or support from ultra-Orthodox parties for an alternative coalition. After the voting, the President will ask the most likely coalition builder to attempt forming a government within 28 days.

A prolonged deadlock could result in another round of elections. The vote affects foreign policy, as most Israelis support a firm stance against Iran, Lebanon, and Syria, and oppose a Palestinian state in the near future.