Higher budgets equal less development

In the past three years, Nigerian governments, including subnational bodies, have witnessed a significant increase in their annual budgets. In 2022, Ekiti State’s total budget was around N100.75 billion and it reached N375.79 billion by 2025; Akwa Ibom State’s budget increased from N586.881 billion in 2022 to N1.65 trillion in 2025 following an extra N695 billion supplementary budget.

Similarly, Zamfara State’s budget doubled from approximately N159.5 billion in 2022 to N546 billion in 2025, while Enugu State's budget grew from N186.64 billion in 2022 to N971 billion in the same year.

This surge in resources has led to what is being described as a resource curse and the paradox of plenty. Despite the wealth, Nigeria is experiencing a historic recurrence of the post-1970s oil boom when the country accumulated massive foreign exchange and petrodollars. However, unlike in the past, the current leaders are not as sincere about the issue of how to spend the money, rather they are busy spending it all, calling it development.

But there is little evidence of measurable, globally comparable, and sustainable development in most states and regions.

The core problem lies in the priority given to spending and the corrupt transactions surrounding these priorities. Numerous infrastructure projects receive funding, but they do not have a significant impact on the average citizen, often designed to siphon public funds. According to an objective analysis of public finances, 80% of awarded contracts reflect white elephant projects.

This indicates that merely awarding more contracts does not guarantee development outcomes, unless the contracts actually achieve the desired impact.

The EU Ambassador to Nigeria, Gautier Mignot, highlighted that Nigeria has the highest number of people living below the poverty threshold globally, with 133 million Nigerians in multidimensional poverty in 2022, a situation that has likely worsened since then. Therefore, the question remains: why are more Nigerians sliding into extreme poverty when governments are budgeting more for development, including human capital development?

The answer lies in the gap between Nigeria's public revenue generation and the efficient allocation, expenditure, and financing of development priorities. A government's decision on how to raise, allocate, and spend public resources, as well as how these resources are utilized, greatly influences the achievement of development goals.

When corruption blurs this process, it creates a culture of corruption in public procurement, leading to misallocation of procurement contracts. Annual budgets then become a tool to enrich those entrusted with ensuring efficient use of public funds for development.

To address this, it is necessary for all levels of government in Nigeria to adopt full performance budgeting, strengthen fiscal accountability and improve public spending efficiency. They must transition towards International Public Sector Accounting Standards (IPSAS) to better track costs against outcomes. Public servants, from the National Assembly to Local Government Authorities, must attach key performance metrics to their funding requests. The legislature must also enforce outcomes-driven public spending.

However, improving public budgeting and fiscal responsibility is not enough. Nigeria must also tackle its serious problem of citizens' character crisis that is fueling the corruption economy. This starts with strengthening the character of the human agency that powers the institutions. Anti-graft agencies must act with rigorous independence, a commitment to the rule of law, and conclusive prosecution of suspects without compromise.

If public sector budgeting is to work for Nigerians, then Nigerians and organized civil society organizations must continue to promote fiscal transparency, simplify complex public budgets, and sustain citizen participation in government spending from the local to federal government.