Dow Falls 1.2% as AI Spending Fears Hit Tech | Global Economy, Oct 24

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.23%, reaching 52,215 as investors expressed doubt about whether the substantial investment required for AI data centers would generate sufficient returns. The S&P 500 slipped 0.52% to 7,624, while the Nasdaq, which showed a milder decline of 0.21% to 25,955, reflected deeper losses in AI-related companies.

Meta Platforms experienced a significant drop of approximately 7% on Thursday, followed by an additional 1% on Friday, as investors evaluated its substantial spending plans. Gold prices decreased by 0.75% to $3,994 per ounce, influenced by a stronger dollar and higher yields. The VIX index surged 2.21% to 19.45, suggesting a return of caution into options markets after a prolonged period of stability.

The US 10-year Treasury yield increased by about 4 basis points to 5.00%, up from 4.96% on Thursday, as ongoing price pressures persisted. The October Composite PMI, at 57.6, indicated output-price growth that was the strongest since August 2022, despite a surge in new orders to their fastest rate in nearly four and a half years.

Michigan consumer sentiment remained steady at 48.0, unchanged from the previous month, and one-year inflation expectations held at 4.7%. These factors suggest that an easy policy adjustment at the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting on Wednesday is unlikely, as markets anticipate rates to remain unchanged. Brazil is set to hold its presidential runoff on Sunday, with markets already tense due to global influences.

The IPCA inflation rate for October decreased to 0.32%, down from 0.70% in the previous month, marking a notable slowdown. The dollar index edged up 0.14% to 101.752, and oil prices surpassed $116 per barrel, heightening concerns about imported inflation for Brazil's largest economy. According to Polymarket, a prediction platform where traders wager real money, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates steady during the meeting on October 28 is 93.5%, while a 0.25-point rate hike has a 6.5% chance.

For the December meeting, traders assigned a 73.5% probability of a 0.25-point increase. Concerning Brazil's presidential runoff, Polymarket predicted Flávio Bolsonaro a 78% chance of victory and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva a 22% chance, with roughly $194 million traded on the platform. Kalshi, a US-regulated market overseen by the CFTC, estimated Flávio Bolsonaro at 77% and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 24%.

These probabilities represent speculative bets by traders, not official forecasts or election polls. The article was generated by The Rio Times' automated newsroom system.