Cowboys poor run-pass balance dwarfed by predictability consequences

The NFL is a passing-centric league, where passing plays generate more yards, EPA per play, and higher success rates than rushing attempts. The Dallas Cowboys, however, are suffering from a concerning lack of run-pass balance, which is exacerbated by their predictability on certain downs and distances. Dallas ranks last in run rate, rushing attempts (31st), and rushing yards (30th) this season.

While many are aware of the Cowboys' poor run rate, the issue may actually be their predictability, which is making them an easy target for defenses. Historically, defenses had to play the Cowboys with uncertainty, as they were unpredictable on 2nd-and-short and 3rd-and-short. But now, their tendencies are becoming known, making it easier for opponents to defend against them.

The Cowboys are only passing 2.4% over expected this season, a surprising number given their significant run-pass imbalance. However, the real problem lies in their predictability on 2nd-and-short (13.3%) and 3rd-and-short (75%). This predictability has left defenses unchallenged in recent years, with the Cowboys passing at rates that are either 1.1% under expected or 22.7% over expected.

It's time for the Cowboys to address this issue and become a more balanced offense, as being predictable in the modern game of football can be a team's downfall.