Weight-loss drug boom in China, India, Brazil could create US$22bil market by 2035

The weight-loss drug market in China, India, and Brazil is poised to expand significantly, potentially reaching US$22 billion by 2035, according to J.P. Morgan analysts. These three countries currently account for a small portion of the global market for GLP-1 drugs, which are used to treat weight-loss and diabetes. However, the analysts predict that the addressable market for these drugs in the region will grow at a compound annual rate of 15% through 2035, driven by improving affordability and broader access in largely untapped patient populations.

China and India are particularly well-positioned to benefit from this growth trend. With some of the world's largest diabetes patient populations - China accounting for over 25% of global diagnosed cases and India for 15% - these countries also face a growing obesity burden. By 2030, China's overweight and obese population is projected to exceed 65%, while India's adult obesity rate is expected to reach 11% by 2035.

Despite the promising growth potential, the uptake of GLP-1 drugs in these emerging markets remains relatively low. In China, penetration is below 0.1%, while in India it is under 0.2%, compared to 4%-5% in the United States. Brazil is currently the largest of the three markets, but its obesity-drug penetration is projected to reach only 7%-8% of its obese population by 2035, compared to about 30% in the US.

The analysts attribute the low penetration in China and India to affordability concerns and hesitancy around injectables. Prescription rates for GLP-1 drugs in India are hesitant due to conservatism and slow cultural shifts. However, the analysts note that patent cliffs, generic launches, and policy-engineered price cuts are improving the affordability of these therapies, converging the three markets on the same destination.