US waiver eases risks for India, China, but won’t alter Russian crude flows

The US has granted a waiver to Russia's crude oil exports to India and China, reducing uncertainty for refiners in the region. This waiver, signed by President Donald Trump on Oct. 16, allows these countries to continue purchasing Russian crude while keeping alternative supply options open. However, the waiver is not permanent and can be revoked, leaving political and compliance risks for trade, shipping, and pricing decisions.

Analysts say the waiver is more about reducing uncertainty rather than altering the crude supply picture. Russian crude flows to India and China have been strong throughout 2026, with India's demand expected to remain robust. Chinese crude imports, including pipeline imports, have remained volatile but strong. Despite the waiver, buyers may diversify their oil supplies to mitigate future sanctions risks, as market behavior suggests that the waiver is a tactical reprieve rather than a durable policy settlement.