Trump's Reverse Nixon Strategy: Bring Russia In, Shut China Out
On October 9, hours after a phone call between President Trump and President Putin, the Treasury Department issued a six-month waiver allowing Russian diesel to be sold on the global market. The stated aim is to bring down fuel prices before the November 3 midterms. But I believe the deal is more consequential than that. It fits a larger strategy: for the United States to control as much of the…
On October 9, the Treasury Department issued a waiver permitting Russian diesel to be traded on the global market for six months. The stated goal is to lower fuel prices ahead of the November 3 midterms. However, this move may be part of a larger strategy by the United States to control a significant portion of the world's energy supply while simultaneously denying access to its key rival, China.
This plan is not a one-time event but has been in motion since the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro in January. The strategy has already led to a collapse in Chinese oil imports from Venezuela and Iran due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Russia is now a significant energy supplier for China, and the Treasury's diesel waiver aims to ease sanctions on Russian energy, allowing US oil companies to tap into Russia's vast reserves.
The larger goal may be to secure Russian gas for Europe through the Nord Stream pipelines. In this scheme, US oil companies would return to Russia, and Moscow would need to reduce its military and intelligence support for Iran. This strategy mirrors a historical pattern following Nixon and Kissinger's efforts to open relations with China in the 1970s to exploit its rift with the Soviet Union.
Whether Russia will abandon China and align with the US is uncertain. However, Russia might concede to the prospect of ending its conflict in Ukraine on less favorable terms to access the European market. The immediate consequences of this strategy include higher energy prices worldwide, inflation, and ongoing emissions. In Europe, energy costs will lead to public dissatisfaction and the growth of right-wing parties.
In the US, affordability issues may cost Republicans control of Congress. The ultimate goal seems to be constraining China's economic growth and influence while bolstering US power and supporting Europe's economic recovery. The question remains whether Moscow will trade its partnership with Beijing for a role in Europe's energy market.
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